WTO：2021全球貿易量近12個月首次下降

世界貿易組織(WTO)12月發布的報告顯示，全球貿易量在2021年第三季度下降0.8%，此前連續12個月的強勁增長勢頭被終結。不過得益于進出口商品價格大幅上漲，全球貿易金額在第三季度繼續攀升。報告指出，三季度全球貿易量萎縮的原因是新冠疫情導致全球供應鏈中斷及產能不足。綜合2021年前三個季度的數據，全球總貿易量增長11.9%。

　　從貿易類別來看，一些行業在第三季度出現強勁增長，包括鋼鐵(同比增長73%)、電子元件(26%)、制藥(22%)和其他化學品(31%)。一些行業則出現停滯或下滑，包括汽車產品(0%)、電信設備(-5%)、服裝(-5%)和紡織品(-7%)。報告稱，汽車產品和電信設備的疲軟反映出最近半導體短缺態勢。包括醫用口罩在內的許多紡織品此前在疫情嚴重時貿易量激增，它們在第三季度貿易量下降是由于之前的高基線。從國家來看，最新的月度數據顯示中國和南非等國出口收入明顯增加，美國、墨西哥等國出口收入略有增加。

　　報告顯示，今年第三季度北美和歐洲進口量弱于預期，出口量分別較上一季度下降1.9%和1%。此外，全球94個港口的集裝箱吞吐量仍接近歷史最高點，但近幾個月已趨于穩定。到今年10月為止，2021年的集裝箱吞吐量增長約9%，與同期商品貿易量增長相當。WTO認為2021年第四季度全球貿易量如能增長，全年貿易量可以達到先前10.8%的增長預測。

The volume of global trade fell 0.8 percent in the third quarter of 2021 after a 12-month streak of strong growth ended, according to a World Trade Organization (WTO) report released in December. But global trade continued to climb in the third quarter, helped by a sharp rise in the prices of imports and exports. The report attributed the contraction in global trade volume in the third quarter to disruptions in global supply chains and insufficient capacity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Combined with data for the first three quarters of 2021, the volume of global trade grew by 11.9%.

By trade category, some sectors showed strong growth in the third quarter, including steel (up 73 per cent year on year), electronic components (26 per cent), pharmaceuticals (22 per cent) and other chemicals (31 per cent). Some sectors stagnated or declined, including automotive products (0%), telecommunications equipment (-5%), apparel (-5%) and textiles (-7%). Weakness in automotive products and telecommunications equipment reflects recent semiconductor shortages, the report said. Many textiles, including medical masks, which had seen a surge in trade during the worst of the pandemic, saw their trade decline in the third quarter due to previous high baselines. On a country-by-country basis, the latest monthly figures showed significant gains in export revenues in countries such as China and South Africa, and modest gains in countries such as the United States and Mexico.

Imports from North America and Europe were weaker than expected in the third quarter, with volumes falling 1.9 per cent and 1 per cent respectively from the previous quarter, according to the report. In addition, container volumes at 94 ports around the world remain near record highs, but have stabilised in recent months. Container throughput rose by about 9% in the year to October, matching the growth in the volume of goods traded in the same period. The WTO expects global trade volumes to grow by 10.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from its previous forecast.